Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent remark that the BJP has gained nearly 19% vote share in Punjab, which will pave the way for a BJP government in Punjab, has left the opposition parties guessing. Amit Shah further said that wherever the party got 19% vote share, it formed the government.
“Whenever we came…, we came as the younger brother. There were no chances of forming a government. I am saying it today that BJP will be contesting the 2027 assembly elections to form the government,” Amit Shah said recently while addressing a Badlav rally in Moga.
“I have come here to seek the blessings of the people of Punjab ,the mothers ,the youth and the seniors” Amit Shah said while appealing to the people of Punjab to power the BJP.
“In 2024 BJP got 19% vote share. Speak loudly how much percent vote share.. we have a track record BJP forms the next government, where it rich is the threshold of 19% votes. In Orissa, Assam, Manipur, Tripura and Uttrakhand similar thing happened. Now this is the turn of Punjab,” Amit Shah said.
The election data tells the real story
Interestingly, while the BJP’s vote share is rising in Punjab after its split with Shiromani Akali Dal in 2020, the number of seats has gone down.
In 2012 while in alliance with Aakali Dal , the BJP had won 12 seats and its vote share was 7.15%. In 2017 the seats fell to 3 and vote hare slipped to 5.40%. This was due to anti-incombency, the price which the party paid for being the Chhota bhai of Akali Dal.
Interestingly, in 2022 when the party went solo, it’s vote share was up by just 1.2% (total 6.60%).
The vote share rose to 18.56% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but the party failed to win any seat. The party surpassed the Akali Dal vote share, which stood at 13.42% that’s why the BJP now calls itself a big brother.
The political analysts ,however, say that there is a stark difference between the assembly and Lok Sabha election issues.
So how BJP’s vote share go up in the Lok Sabha elections ? The experts say it was due to the return of the urban Hindu voter due to the Modi factor. The Hindu votes earlier got divided between Congress and AAP due to the BJP and Akali Dal alliance. The split between BJP and the Akali Dal attracted Hindu voters towards the BJP, considered to be the natural home. Another factor being cited that worked in favour of the BJP is its efforts to reach out to the rural voters. BJP workers were successful in exposing the AAP, which was not giving due credit to the Central welfare schemes like direct benefit transfer ,Ujjwala, Kisan Samman Nidhi ,MSP,
Aayushman Bharat. People came to know that it was not AAP, but the Union government led by the BJP that was offering these schemes.
BJP’s road blockers: Radical elements and Sikh temporal authority
The thing that I fail to understand during my two decades of long reporting career in Punjab is why the radical Sikhs were against the BJP and RSS. Narendra Modi personally never spoke anything negative against the Sikh community , but has in fact done a lot for the Sikhs. This includes the opening of the Kartarpur Sahib corridor, justice for 1984 rights victims by reopening the cases, Veer Bal Divas announcement, removal of GST on langar, FCRA registration for Shri Harmandir Sahib, citizenship amendment act, evaluation of Afghan Sikhs, reduction of blacklist, promoting Sikh heritage, support for Gatka,the traditional Martial arts, besides other initiatives.
A section of the Sikh community, the hardliner Khalistani groups in particular, ignore the contribution of the BJP and paint it as anti-Sikh. They have been opposing the RSS , saying it was trying to dilute Hinduism and Sikhism by creating Rashtriy Sikh Sangat (RSS), the Sikh wing of RSS, which has been the target of khalistani elements. Rulda Singh, the then chief of RSS was assassinated in 2009 by Khalistan Liberation Force and Babbar Khalsa terrorists in Patiala.
The highest Sikh temporal authority, Akaal Takht, has also been opposing the RSS due to its Hindu Rashtra and Hindutva agenda. Akaal Takht, in the past ,had also demanded a ban on RSS, saying it was harming national unity.
The question is whether the BJP will be able to retain its 18.56% vote share in the assembly elections, which are totally different from the Parliamentary elections. Will the social engineering of the party work in favour or not ? Will the Dalit and Hindu voters vote for the BJP.
In case the BJP crosses the threshold of 20%, often called as the magic number, it can become a spoiler as a contender. The party can also attract the floating vote share estimated at around 15%. The anti-incumbency against the ruling AAP and the factionalism within the Punjab Congress can also help the BJP gain more vote share. The 2027 assembly election will be a multipolar and multi-corner battle where a silent surge can turn into a loud victory.
What remains to be seen is whether the AAP will be able to hold its fort or Congress, the principal opposition party ,which stages a comeback or succumbs to the tactics of the BJP’s social engineering.
